When do Nuclear Sanctions Work
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Date
2020-05-14
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Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
While there are numerous determinants of successful economic sanctions in academia, the scholars of nuclear proliferation suggest that the same conditions will not be applied in sanctions intended for counter-proliferation due to the extremity and high uncertainty of the theme. In this research, the author attempts to verify the connection between sanctions and nuclear proliferation by arguing that five determinants (target’s economic capacity, economic interdependence, sanction’s multilateral nature, duration, and the diversified proliferation motives) affect the efficacy of nuclear sanction regimes. An empirical analysis of the 27 cases of proliferation attempts, seven sets of counter-proliferation sanctions, and case studies on North Korea and India indicate that two of the initial determinants display significant influence over the outcome of nuclear sanctions. The results of the research suggest that the target’s lower level of economic integration to international commerce, and diversified sources of proliferation model undermine the efficacy of counter-proliferation sanctions.
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Keywords
sanction, counter-proliferation, nonproliferation