A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN POLITICAL BEHAVIORS AND AGGREGATED ELECTORAL RESULTS IN THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 1968-2010
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Date
2015-07-01
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Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
This thesis uses quantitative methods to analyze the relationships between incumbent electoral results in the U.S. House of Representatives between 1968 and 2010 and various political behaviors including legislative productivity, campaign expenditures, ideological polarization, and party unity while hypothesizing that statistically significant correlations exist among these variables. Chapter 1 models expected electoral results for incumbents using a variety of political environment variables in conjunction with the political behavior variables listed above. It finds that legislative productivity is a statistically significant predictor of electoral success on both chamber and party levels and that the presence of a Democratic president harms the electoral performance of Democrats in the House. Chapter 2 analyzes how electoral results impact subsequent political behaviors. Dynamic models deployed in this chapter demonstrate that ideological polarization and approval ratings are both directly affected by incumbent electoral performance. Chapter 3 examines these relationships through the lens of high-turnover elections in the House, special cases in which incumbent candidates seeking reelection lose their bids at an unusually high rate. This chapter finds that high-turnover elections are predominately referenda on individual parties and not the behavior of the entire chamber. Taken as a whole, the chapters in this thesis demonstrate the existence of statistically significant relationships between electoral results and political behaviors in the House of Representatives.
Thesis Reviewers: Dr. Jennifer Bachman and the Honorable William Clinger
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Congress, House of Representatives, Political Behavior, Electoral Results